How to use early modeling to assess price potential and HTA strategy

The challenge

Our team sought to assess the pricing potential and Health Technology Assessment (HTA) strategy for therapy early in development to better understand future market access opportunities and commercialization risks. We applied early economic modeling and scenario analysis to shape HTA submission strategies, optimize price potential, and adapt continuously as new clinical evidence emerged.

What is early modeling for price potential & HTA strategy?

Our early modeling utilizes a preliminary, early cost-effectiveness Markov model to assess a product’s potential pricing outlook prior to launch. This approach forecasts how HTA bodies might assess cost per QALY, tests structural assumptions, and shapes evidence generation strategies to support access.

The Acumetis approach

Acumetis global value & access team helped to conduct early modeling and strategic assessments designed to evaluate price potential, reimbursement considerations, and future HTA positioning.

Early model

Built an early cost-effectiveness Markov model using Acumetis Model Builder, to estimate cost per QALY compared to long-term prevention treatments from a health system perspective over a lifetime.

Scenario analysis

Enabled users to explore cost-effectiveness drivers by adjusting settings such as treatment sequence, usage, discontinuation, population subgroups, and cost and clinical inputs.

HTA strategy

Conducted a critical appraisal of comparator models to test assumptions based on precedents in HTA submissions.

How our practical agility keeps teams ahead

Our agile approach enabled seamless collaboration and rapid model refinement to support evolving evidence and strategic decision-making.

1. Performed one-way sensitivity analyses and value of information analyses, providing targeted recommendations for evidence generation based on limited available data
2. Iteratively refined the model with emerging clinical and pivotal trial data across key comparators to ensure continued relevance and accuracy

The outcome

The engagement provided greater clarity into pricing potential, HTA considerations, and future market access dynamics early in development. By connecting economic modeling, reimbursement insights, and strategic forecasting, our team is able to help strengthen evidence planning, refine value positioning, and make more informed commercialization decisions.

Why it worked

• Assessed potential cost-effectiveness and reimbursement considerations early in development through an adaptable Markov modeling approach.
• Enabled exploration of key cost-effectiveness drivers across treatment assumptions, patient populations, and clinical and cost inputs.
• Strengthened HTA strategy through critical appraisal of comparator assumptions based on prior HTA precedents.
• Supported evidence generation planning through sensitivity and value of information analyses designed to address data gaps and evolving evidence needs.
• Maintained ongoing model relevance through iterative updates using emerging clinical and pivotal trial data across key comparators.

Acumetis global value & access team

We bring together integrated, multi-capability expertise to define where your asset demonstrates value, build the evidence that proves it, and communicate it in a way that achieves success and drives adoption. Built on 100+ economic models across 20+ countries, our consultants partner with you to de-risk the decisions that shape commercialization success for the widest patient population.

To learn how Acumetis global value & access can support your pricing strategy, HTA planning, and market access decision-making, contact us to start the conversation.